Baccarat Odds: The Arithmetic Behind the Felt
On an eight-deck shoe, Banker takes 45.86% of hands, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%. Factor in the payouts and the house edge lands at 1.06% on Banker, 1.24% on Player and 14.36% on Tie. Those figures explain nearly everything about baccarat odds; the rest of this page shows where they originate and how other bets compare.
The Numbers at a Glance
| Bet | Payout | Win probability | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 0.95 to 1 | 45.86% | 1.06% |
| Player | 1 to 1 | 44.62% | 1.24% |
| Tie | 8 to 1 | 9.52% | 14.36% |
| Tie (at 9 to 1 tables) | 9 to 1 | 9.52% | 4.84% |
| Player Pair / Banker Pair | 11 to 1 | 7.47% | 10.36% |
Source: Wizard of Odds, baccarat house edge. All figures are for 8 decks. Ties are a push for Player and Banker bets, so their win probabilities don’t add up to 100%.
What the House Edge Really Means
The edge is the slice of every bet the house retains across a very large number of hands. At 1.06% on Banker, each $100 staked there costs you roughly $1.06 over the long haul.
It doesn’t tell you what will happen in one session — you can win or lose much more in a few hands. But the more you play, the closer your results get to the house edge.
Banker, Player, Tie: The Gap
Banker is the best bet, Player is close behind, and Tie is far worse. The gap between Banker and Player is small: 0.18 percentage points. The gap to Tie is huge: betting on Tie costs you more than 13 times as much as betting on Banker.
Why the Banker Wins More Often
The Banker hand acts last. Under the third card rules, Banker’s decision to draw depends on what the Player hand already did, which gives it a small information advantage. That’s why Banker wins 45.86% of hands against Player’s 44.62%.
The 5% Commission
Without a fee, the Banker bet would give players an edge of about 1.24% over the casino. The 5% commission on Banker wins turns that into a 1.06% house edge. Tables without commission use other tricks instead — such as paying half on a Banker win with 6 — and end up with a higher edge, about 1.46%.
Without commission
- Banker wins more often — 45.86%
- players would hold an edge of about 1.24%
With the 5% commission
- a 0.95 to 1 payout evens it out
- house edge — 1.06%
- Probabilities do not change: 45.86 / 44.62 / 9.52%
- Player and Tie bets pay no commission
Tie at 8 to 1 or 9 to 1
A Tie lands in roughly 9.52% of hands — about one in 10.5. At the customary 8 to 1 that yields a 14.36% edge. Some tables pay 9 to 1, trimming it to roughly 4.84%.
One payout unit cuts the edge threefold — still far above Banker.
Even at 9 to 1, the Tie bet is several times more expensive than Banker or Player. If you do bet on Tie, look for a 9 to 1 table.
Side Bets: The Price List
Side bets offer big payouts and carry big house edges.
| Side bet | Payout | House edge |
|---|---|---|
| Dragon Bonus (Player) | up to 30 to 1 | 2.65% |
| Dragon 7 (EZ Baccarat) | 40 to 1 | 7.61% |
| Dragon Bonus (Banker) | up to 30 to 1 | 9.37% |
| Panda 8 (EZ Baccarat) | 25 to 1 | 10.19% |
| Player Pair / Banker Pair | 11 to 1 | 10.36% |
Pay tables vary by provider. Details for each bet are on our baccarat variants page.
Do Decks Change Anything?
For the main bets, very little. Fewer decks slightly improve Banker and slightly worsen Player, but those differences are a fraction of a percentage point. The Tie bet is the exception: with a single deck its house edge rises by about 1.4 points.
| Decks | Banker | Player | Tie (8 to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.01% | 1.29% | 15.75% |
| 6 | 1.06% | 1.24% | 14.44% |
| 8 | 1.06% | 1.24% | 14.36% |
Streaks: How Likely, Really?
Streaks feel meaningful, but they’re a normal part of random results. The chance that Banker wins the next several hands in a row (counting ties as breaking the streak) falls quickly:
| Banker wins in a row | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 | about 21% |
| 3 | about 9.6% |
| 4 | about 4.4% |
| 5 | about 2.0% |
| 6 | about 0.9% |
If you bet on Banker every hand, the chance of losing 6 decided hands in a row (ignoring ties, which are a push) is about 1.4%, or roughly 1 in 70. Over hundreds of hands, such streaks are almost certain to happen — which is why progressive systems like Martingale are so risky. And after any streak, the next hand’s odds are unchanged: Banker still wins 45.86% of the time. Figures: Wizard of Odds, 8 decks, each hand independent; checked on October 21, 2026.
Baccarat, Blackjack, Roulette: Who Wins on Odds
Baccarat’s Banker bet is one of the best bets in the casino, but not the best of all.
| Game and bet | House edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack with perfect basic strategy | about 0.5% (6–8 decks, 3:2 blackjack, perfect basic strategy) |
| Baccarat — Banker | 1.06% |
| Baccarat — Player | 1.24% |
| European roulette | 2.70% |
| American roulette | 5.26% |
| Baccarat — Tie | 14.36% |
Blackjack can beat baccarat, but only if you play every hand correctly. Baccarat gives you a low edge with no decisions at all, which makes it one of the best-odds games for casual players.
Frequently Asked Questions
In an 8-deck game, Banker wins 45.86% of hands, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%.
Banker moves last under the third-card rules, so its decision accounts for the Player’s third card. That narrow advantage is exactly why a 5% commission exists.
Banker at 1.06% ranks among the finest bets in the building. Blackjack with flawless basic strategy can edge it, as can certain video poker variants.
About 9.52% — near one hand in 10.5. At 8 to 1 the Tie edge stands at 14.36%.
On Banker, discounting ties, roughly 1.4% — about one sequence in seventy.
Live tables show results on scoreboards called roads: red usually marks Banker, blue Player and green Tie. They show history, not future results. See our live baccarat guide.
Sergey MelnikovEditor and moderator
Take the Best Odds on the Table
Back Banker, skip the Tie, and fix a budget before the first hand.